Russian fighter jets violating Estonian airspace mark not just another reckless provocation, but the beginning of a dangerous strategy to destabilise Europe from within, according to one leading expert. Yuriy Boyechko, chief executive of the US-based non-profit Hope For Ukraine, said: “We see Putin escalating his provocations against NATO because he feels that, right now, he has a window of opportunity to sow fear in the hearts of European citizens so they start voting for pro-Russian politicians, and that is how he will gain control over the entire continent of Europe.
“The Russians officially started a hybrid war against NATO because there is no strong response from NATO to these acts of aggression by the Russian army. The response of NATO has to be the same as how Turkey responded to a Russian jet violating their airspace in 2015. Turkey shot down that Russian jet after it was in Turkish airspace for five minutes. There were no more Russian jets violating Turkish airspace after the 2015 incident.”
His warning comes just hours after Estonia summoned a senior Russian diplomat to protest the incursion of three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets that entered its airspace without clearance on Friday.
The aircraft crossed into Estonian territory near Vaindloo Island in the Gulf of Finland, flying without transponders or flight plans and ignoring two-way radio communications with Estonian air traffic control. Italian F-35 jets, deployed as part of NATO’s Baltic Air Policing Mission, were scrambled to intercept the intruding aircraft.
Estonia’s foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna, called the incident “unprecedentedly brazen,” noting that Russia has violated Estonian airspace four times this year, but never on such a scale.
Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, who is herself Estonian, described the incursion as “an extremely dangerous provocation” that “further escalates tensions in the region.” NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said the incident was “another example of reckless Russian behaviour and NATO’s ability to respond.”
While NATO fighter jets scramble hundreds of times each year to intercept aircraft — many of them Russian warplanes flying too close to member state airspace — it is far rarer for aircraft to cross the boundary itself.
Dozens of NATO jets remain on round-the-clock alert across Europe to respond to unannounced military flights or civilian planes losing communication with air-traffic controllers.
Major Taavi Karotamm, spokesperson for the Estonian Defence Forces, said the Russian planes flew parallel to Estonia’s border from east to west and did not head toward the capital, Tallinn. Mr Tsahkna urged that Russia’s “increasingly extensive testing of boundaries and growing aggressiveness must be met with a swift increase in political and economic pressure.”
The Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — along with Poland, which borders Ukraine and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, have long been seen as potential targets should Russia ever risk an attack on NATO. All four countries are staunch supporters of Ukraine, and the repeated airspace violations heighten concerns that Moscow is probing NATO’s resolve.
Mr Boyechko’s warnings underscore these fears. He says Putin is deliberately escalating tensions to test the alliance, aiming to weaken European democracies from within by spreading fear and encouraging votes for pro-Russian politicians. Analysts agree that such hybrid strategies, which combine military intimidation with political manipulation, form a central pillar of Russia’s broader war aims.
The Estonian incursion, which lasted 12 minutes, is the latest in a series of aggressive moves by Moscow following drone incidents over Poland and other NATO states. These incidents have rattled European governments as US-led efforts to halt the war in Ukraine continue to falter.
In a separate development, Poland’s Border Guard, posting on X, said: “Two Russian fighter jets performed a low pass over the Petrobaltic platform in the Baltic Sea. The platform’s safety zone was violated. The Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland and other services were notified.”
As Europe grapples with this growing threat, the question remains whether NATO will adopt a firm stance similar to Turkey’s decisive action in 2015, or continue with measured responses that may leave the alliance vulnerable to further provocations.
